Vital Football

Latest Blackpool FC News

How Much is Enough for Blackpool?

How Much is Enough for Blackpool?

An article debut for forum member 'Plaselwy', who writes about the points that The Seasiders need to gain to avoid the drop. Will 50 be enough? What has history told us?

How Much is Enough for Blackpool?
By Plaselwy


In terms of investments there is always the caveat that 'past performance is no indication of future performance'. So it is also with the number of points required to avoid relegation from the Championship - what was needed last season has little implication for this season.

However, there is a trend though nothing statistically very sound. This occurs when you take the number of points required to just outperform the best relegated team (the 3rd from bottom) and relate it to the combined points of the top 2 teams in the league. Taking the last 10 seasons as the database, 2007-2008 saw 53 points as the safe haven at a time when the total points of the top 2 teams was just 160. At the opposite end of the scale 2005-2006 saw the top 2 amass a stunning 196 points between them and, that year, 43 points was sufficient to avoid the drop. It implies that when you have two (or more) teams who win a lot of matches they will take a lot of their points from the lower clubs. Clearly this makes for a very precarious prediction but if anxiety and unease is growing it might be a useful tactic for firming up or demolishing your existing view of the end-of-season situation.

With 8 games each to go the current Birmingham and Wolves tally is 139. If, and it`s not an unreasonable proposition, they continue to accumulate points at the same rate then the final number becomes 168. This is the second lowest of the last decade and is in keeping with the unreliable form that they've shown throughout. If the trend of the last 10 seasons is anything to go by it is likely that at least 50 points will be required to stay in the Championship, almost certainly a few more. Just glancing at the points gained already by the bottom 3 teams tends to support this. I would predict 52-54.

If 'Pool continue the same rate of points accumulation we shall reach just 52 points. 4 wins would almost certainly mean safety.
So where are those wins coming from? Well, the fixture list for the run-in could hardly be more encouraging. Every single team we meet has something to play for. Reading (h) and Swansea (a) will be tough but they are strong challengers for promotion and will have confidence but with a leavening of added anxiety. PNE, too, have promotion in mind but it's a local derby of the fiercest kind and that's a great leveller. The other 5 matches, away to Barnsley and Charlton and home to Southampton, Plymouth and Notts Forest are all against fellow strugglers - indeed, all except Plymouth are below us and the latter are only above by a 1 goal margin.

Personally, I'm relieved that there are no games against teams with nothing to play for, no 'edginess', who can play for fun with no pressure. I think they are the hardest matches. On current form 'Pool might just make it happen. To be frank, if we can't get 10-12 points from the 5 matches against the lower teams then we deserve any fate that comes our way.

I still feel strong and positive about the end-of-season situation however gloomy about management and administration. Maybe it's the form of the last 2 games. Maybe it's just because I feel the need to be positive.



For the very latest Championship odds

Free £15 bet when you spend £5 on The New Football Pools

Click here to join in the debate on the club forum.

Writer:Editor
Date:Thursday March 12 2009
Time: 2:57PM

Login to post a comment

Recent Blackpool Articles

Are Players Set For A Football Exit?

With the country narrowly voting to leave the European Union in Thursday's Referendum, there are certainly plenty of real questions that have to be addressed in terms...

Accrington Fixture Moved Forward

Blackpool have today confirmed that the League Two fixture with Accrington Stanley at Bloomfield Road has been brought forward 24 hours.

League Cup F‏irst Round - Bolton (22/6/16)

The draw for the first round of the English Football League Cup took place earlier this afternoon.

Exeter Open League Two 2016/17

Blackpool now know that we open the League Two year of 2016/17 at home to Exeter City.

Archived Vital Blackpool Articles

Vital Blackpool articles from

Site Journalists

Write for Vital Blackpool
Write For Vital Blackpool
Apply Here

Current Poll (see more polls)

Peterborough MotM
Suggested By:
Doyle10%
White5%
McAlister2%
Robertson2%
Potts5%
Redshaw5%
Aldred52%
Philliskirk7%
Norris5%
Higham2%
Blyth5%
ScoopDragon Publishing Entire League Network of Sites

League Table

# Team P W D L Pts. GD
C Northampton 46 29 12 5 99 36
P Oxford 46 24 14 8 86 43
P Bristol Rovers 46 26 7 13 85 31
4 Accrington 46 24 13 9 85 26
5 Plymouth 46 24 9 13 81 26
6 Portsmouth 46 21 15 10 78 31
7 Wimbledon 46 21 12 13 75 14
8 Leyton Orient 46 19 12 15 69 -1
9 Cambridge 46 18 14 14 68 11
10 Carlisle 46 17 16 13 67 5
11 Luton 46 19 9 18 66 2
12 Mansfield 46 17 13 16 64 8
13 Wycombe 46 17 13 16 64 1
14 Exeter 46 17 13 16 64 -2
15 Barnet 46 17 11 18 62 -1
16 Hartlepool 46 15 6 25 51 -23
17 Notts County 46 14 9 23 51 -29
18 Stevenage 46 11 15 20 48 -15
19 Yeovil 46 11 15 20 48 -16
20 Crawley 46 13 8 25 47 -33
21 Morecambe 46 12 10 24 46 -22
22 Newport 46 10 13 23 43 -21
R Dag & Red 46 8 10 28 34 -35
R York 46 7 13 26 34 -36
Latest F1 News
Latest Vital Boxing News

Recent Blackpool Results (view all)

Blackpool Fixtures (view all)

Vital Members League Table

RankNamePoints
1.Layton_Seasider211
2.BobHatton70
3.Bear195169
4.Albert Ramsbottom64
5.premier 152
6.SeasideEssexXile48
7.bfcpete47
8.whitey194230
9.Hastings25
10.themaclad22